Tag Archives | Polling Methodology

Getting the Latino vote wrong? Which polls are good and which polls are bad

This article originally appeared at Politico.com Is it possible that Colorado’s Cory Gardner is shaping up to be this election cycle’s Sharron Angle? You might recall what happened to Angle in the Nevada Senate race in 2010. Almost every pre-election poll had Angle, the tea-party-supported Republican challenger to Senate Democratic majority leader Harry Reid, leading the […]

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Seriously flawed Latino polling in Georgia leads to wildly incorrect speculation

This piece was originally posted at HuffPost Pollster, October 6, 2014 Georgia has more than 900,000 Latinos and more than 270,000 Latinos eligible to vote in 2014.  For good reason, analysts have begun to identify Georgia as a battleground state where Latino votes could help determine the outcome of the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections this November. […]

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Hard data from primary proves the San Diego UT/Survey USA Poll is flawed

The best way to assess how accurate current polls in the San Diego mayoral race are is to look at their past performance and compare to actual election outcomes.  This is the same technique that 538 polling guru Nate Silver uses to assigns accuracy weights to different polling companies.  New data analysis of the November […]

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Nevada’s Odd Numbers: The Complexity of Polling in the Silver State

In the past three electoral cycles Nevada has commanded significant national attention due to the state’s status as both a presidential and congressional battleground state.  Yet, despite the Silver State’s increased electoral clout, Nevada remains one of the most difficult states to reliably poll; a consideration that is not without its consequences as flawed polling […]

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