LD Vote Predict final model: Obama 72.9 vs. Romney 27.1

Final LD Vote and Turnout Predict Projections: Record-breaking Turnout and Lopsided Support for Obama among Latinos Over the final several weeks of polling (Figure 1), the LD Vote Predict estimates for presidential vote choice have been quite stable, leading us to our final projection for a breakdown among actual Latino voters who choose one of […]

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Final impreMedia-LD tracking poll: if Latino vote is high, Obama will carry 4 key swing states

High Latino voter turnout could deliver swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida to the Democrats impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of 11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to […]

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Predict election outcome through Latino Decisions/America’s Voice Interactive map

We have conducted extensive analysis throughout the campaign season focused on the Latino electorate and our blogs have repeatedly argued that Latino Voters will be a major force in deciding who will be the next President of the United States. With only hours before election night, you can predict how this key demographic group will […]

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How the Exit Polls Misrepresent Latino Voters, and Badly

Did you know that, despite running exceedingly racialized anti-Latino advertisements in Nevada’s Senate race, Sharon Angle got 30% of the Latino vote? Jan Brewer also did well, attracting an above-average 28% share of Arizona’s Hispanic vote just months after signing SB1070 into law.  Moreover, Meg Whitman received 21% of the African American vote in her […]

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The Context of Immigration Policy in New Mexico Reflects National Trends

The Latino electorate continues to be one of the most intriguing story lines of the 2012 election cycle, with the role of immigration policy in Latino voting behavior dominating discussions of the Latino vote in this critical election. Here at Latino Decisions we have provided in-depth analysis of this relationship, finding that immigration policy is […]

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Latinos’ Support for Obama Solid in Florida

With the election less than two weeks away there has been a great deal of speculation about the Latino community’s support for President Obama, particularly in Florida. Most recently, an Interactive Voice Response survey, or “robo-poll,” conducted on October 10-11 by Florida International University showed that 50.7% of Latinos in Florida who identified themselves as […]

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8 percent of Latinos have already voted early, enthusiasm up again in final week

The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll shows that Latinos are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote than ten weeks ago when the initial poll was fielded.  Forty-five percent of Latino voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 compared to 2008.  That number is up from 37% from ten weeks ago when […]

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Puerto Rico and Federal Status Legislation, 1952-2012

On November 6, the residents of Puerto Rico will have an opportunity to vote in local island-wide general elections and a status plebiscite. The 2012 plebiscite provides electors with a two-stage vote on the future status of the island. The first stage asks electors to choose between continuing the present Commonwealth or territorial status (Yes) […]

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Targeting Latino Voters in Campaign Communications: New Evidence and Insights

Hispanics are now the largest minority group in the United States at 16.5 percent of the population and are one of the most sought after groups of voters in swing areas across the country. However, surveys reveal that Hispanics, compared to non-Hispanic whites and African-Americans, have a lower share of voting eligible citizens registered to […]

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LD Vote Predict Indicates Latinos Voters Will Support Obama Over Romney by 3 to 1 Margin

While President Obama’s support among Latino voters has fallen slightly from its peak prior to the first debate (week 6 of the tracking poll), effects of a poor debate performance by President Obama have been minimal. Furthermore, we find that any small Romney gains were short-lived. We have seen relative stability over the past four […]

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