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Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls

In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to immigrants, and more.  The basis […]

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The Rundown on Latino Voter Election Eve Polling and Latino Exit Polls

Washington, DC – On a press call and webinar held today, Matt Barreto, UCLA Professor of Political Science and Chicano Studies, and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, presented the results of the Latino Decisions Election Eve poll. The key finding: Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 79-18% margin.   Barreto also highlighted why […]

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Mobilizing Latinos with Identity Appeals: Evidence from Two Voter Turnout Experiments

Past research shows Latinos are more likely to vote and participate in politics when there is a Latino candidate on the ballot and when issues directly affecting the Latino community are at stake in the election, much like in the current election. This research suggests that ethnic solidarity drives participation. At the same time, dozens […]

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Latinos in non-battleground states of CA, TX, NY reporting much lower levels of outreach

Latino voter contact rates in California, New York and Texas much lower than in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina With two weeks to go before Election 2016, Texan Latino voters are most  likely to have been ignored, and less certain to vote WASHINGTON, D.C. – With less than two weeks to go […]

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New Data Shows Latino Electorate Continues to Experience Wide Variety of Voting Problems at Polling Place

Long waits, lack of Spanish assistance and issues with identification among problems noted by Latino registered voters. New letter to DOJ calls for deployment of election monitors to areas of concern to ensure voter-intimidation does not affect Latinos and other underrepresented communities   WASHINGTON, D.C. – With two weeks to go before Election Day, the […]

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Latino Tracking Poll Week 6: Clinton 74 – Trump 15

The Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll in partnership with NALEO and Telemundo Noticias is out for October 24, 2016 and shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 74% to 15% (+59).  At this exact same point in 2012, the weekly tracking poll showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 71% to 20% (+51).  Back in 2012, 40% […]

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Expert Opinions: What constitutes a good vs. bad Latino poll

During a webinar and telephonic briefing discussion hosted by NCLR yesterday, experts on political polling and Latino voters analyzed how the national exit polls and many polls throughout the election cycle consistently miss the mark when it comes to Latino voters – and discussed why that is problematic for good post-election analysis and resultant political […]

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LD Vote Predict 2016: Latino Voters Poised to Cast Most Lopsided Presidential Vote on Record

LD Vote Predict: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump, 3% other candidates (+/– 5.5%) In 2012 we unveiled our statistical model predicting election day vote called LD Vote Predict, which proved to be extremely accurate.  Using the same hierarchical Bayesian model we now turn to our 2016 tracking poll to estimate election day vote choice for Clinton v. […]

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Latino Voters are more partisan and energized in 2016 than in 2012

This week, in collaboration with the National Association of Latino Elected Officials Education Fund and Telemundo Noticias, Latino Decisions launched its 2016 weekly tracking poll of the Latino electorate. We conducted a similar tracking poll during the 2012 presidential election and included many of the same questions again this year. Because this is the first […]

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Announcing the 2016 Latino Tracking Poll – Week 1

Today Latino Decisions released the first wave of the 2016 election weekly tracking poll in partnership with NALEO and Noticias Telemundo.  The poll will continue for 8 weekly installments every Monday through the day before Election Day and will track Latino vote choice, enthusiasm, evaluations of party outreach to Latinos, the most important issues, and […]

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