ASU Research Center Examines Arizonans’ Major Issue concerns, Voter Preferences, and Perceptions of the President, in statewide poll.
October 12, 2018
Contact: Edward D. Vargas, PhD, MPH [email protected] (480) 965-8557 (office)
The Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research (CLAPR), in the School of Politics and Global Studies (SPGS) at Arizona State University released a new statewide poll today showing Arizona is indeed a battleground “purple” state with Democrat Krysten Sinema leading the Senate race, and Republican Doug Ducey leading the race for Governor. The poll, administered by the polling firm Latino Decisions, surveyed 775 total respondents, including an oversample of Latina/os (N=411) from September 10-25. The poll asked many questions, including perceptions of the most important issues facing the state, one’s likelihood of voting, voter preferences in the 2018 elections for the governorship and the U.S. Senate as well as with regard to certain initiative propositions, and numerous other questions addressing respondents’ experiences with and perceptions of various public services. Below, we summarize a sampling of the results among 610 registered voters. This is the first of three releases that CLAPR will make available regarding the 2018 election cycle in the coming weeks.
Among the poll’s findings are that immigration is most frequently cited as “the most important issue” (37%) facing the state, followed by K-12 Education (28%), and Health Care (18%). There was an especially large divide according to political party, with 54% of self-identified Republicans listing immigration as a top concern compared to 26% of self-identified Democrats, and 30% of Independents.
However, if looked at in terms of racial/ethnic background there is little difference between Latina/os and non-Latino whites regarding the importance of immigration as an issue (37% to 40%, respectively). (Note: Self-identified Republicans were 36% of survey respondents, 30% are Democrats, 28% called themselves ‘independent,’ with the remaining 7% indicating some other political party, or said ‘don’t know.’)
Turning to the major contests, in the U.S Senate race, for the seat being vacated by Jeff Flake (Republican), the data indicate that 43% say they will vote for Democrat candidate Kyrsten Sinema, 37% for Republican candidate Martha McSally, and 17% undecided. While there is a clear partisan split between Democrats and Republicans, the data also indicate that Sinema (D) does better among Republicans than McSally (R) does among Democrats, with Sinema having an 8% percent advantage in this cross-party support comparison. According to the results of this poll, Sinema also does better among women, by 15%, (42% to 27%, with 23% undecided) than McSally.
Regarding the 2018 gubernatorial race, 41% of respondents say they will vote for the Republican incumbent, Doug Ducey, 37% for Democrat challenger David Garcia, with 19% undecided. The largest difference is by party with 77% of Republicans supporting Ducey and 78% of Democrats supporting Garcia. Independents are especially split, with 34 vs 33% respectively, expressing support for each of the two major party candidates, and 30% of this group is undecided.
The survey also asked two questions about President Trump, regarding approval/disapproval, and regarding whether he “cares equally about the well-being of all Americans.” Overall, 54% of Arizonans surveyed disapprove of “the job Donald Trump is doing as President” (with 43% strongly disapproving) and 43 percent approve (with 26% expressing strong approval). The largest divide is based on partisan affiliation. While 77% of Republicans approve (with 55% strongly approving), 87% of Democrats disapprove (with 79% strongly disapproving). In terms of respondents’ racial/ethnic background, whites are split 51-48 concerning (dis)approval, while 68% of Latina/o respondents disapprove of (with 57% strongly disapproving) “the job Donald Trump is doing as President.”
Overall, 54% of Arizonans surveyed disagree with the statement that the president “cares equally about the well-being of all Americans;” 41% overall strongly disagree. On the other hand, 43% agree with that perception of the president’s equal concern for all Americans, and 29% strongly agree. Nearly half of Whites (49%) disagree that the president cares equally about all Americans while 48 percent agree. Among Latina/o respondents, 67% disagree that the president cares equally, and 51% do so strongly. Yet again, Democrats and Republicans in the sample are split on this; independents’ views on this, and on most questions in the survey, are closer to those of Democrats. Among Republicans, 77% agree that the president cares equally (and 59% agree strongly); in stark contrast, 89% of Democrats disagree and 73% of Democrats strongly disagree. In the case of independents, 59% disagree and 45% strongly disagree with the statement.
Among the many other questions on the survey, we note one that seems especially interesting. The survey asked: “How serious a problem is economic inequality for American society;” respondents were given the choices that it is a “moderate problem,” a “major problem,” “not a problem at all,” or “don’t know.” Overall, the leading response was “a major problem,” with 41% of respondents choosing this. Closely behind, with 37%, a “moderate problem” was selected. Here again, as with some number of the other survey questions, differences between Latina/os and Whites emerged, but were not dramatic. 47% of Latina/o respondents see economic inequality as a “major” problem, as did 39% of Whites; and there is a small gap between Latina/os Whites’ (39%) and Latina/os’ (37%) views of economic inequality as a “moderate” problem. Another point worth noting is that women were somewhat more likely than men to see economic inequality as a “major” problem – 46% to 34%. The partisan divides on this question are most striking.
Among Democrats, 60% see economic inequality as a “major” problem while just 20% of Republicans did so; more similar to Democrats, 47% of independents saw this as a major problem. Republicans were most likely, at 50%, to perceive economic inequality as a moderate problem. The difference between Democrats and Republicans in seeing economic inequality as “no problem at all” is considerable. About 23% of Republicans believe this not a problem at all; only 8% of Democrats see it this way. Independents are again between Democrats and Republicans, with 13% saying economic inequality is “no problem at all.”
Methodology: On behalf of CLAPR, Latino Decisions interviewed a total of 775 adults (610 registered voters) between September 10 and September 25, 2018. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish, according to the respondent’s choice. Surveys were completed using a blended sample that included live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones, and online surveys. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. To view slide deck click here.
About CLAPR: The mission of CLAPR is to foster and support thoughtful, objective, and innovative research on the political and policy circumstances of the nation’s Latina/o-Hispanic population, thereby creating a fuller, deeper understanding of politics and governance in the United States. This mission entails facilitating and disseminating research that emphasizes, but is not limited to, empirical and normative theoretical perspectives, historical context, institutional dimensions, and public policy issues which are especially germane to the Latina/o-Hispanic population while also having broad significance for American society and politics.
