The Political Calculus of Immigration Reform

Yesterday Gary Segura, a Principal at Latino Decisions, and Lynn Tramonte, Deputy Director of America’s Voice conducted a webinar detailing the electoral benefits both Democrats and Republicans stand to gain from a successful comprehensive immigration reform policy. Among the highlights:

  • Candidates underestimate the Latino electorate at their peril: if Latinos had voted for Mitt Romney in the proportion they voted for President Bush in 2004, we would have inaugurated President Romney on Monday.
  • Both parties should note that 31% of Latino voters say they would be more likely to vote Republican if the GOP took a lead role in passing comprehensive reform with a path to citizenship.
  • Immigration reform is personally important for the Latino electorate, 60% of Latino voters have a family member or friend who is undocumented.
  • Latino voters were decisive in the presidential contest, and could be equally important in determining election outcomes in over twenty Congressional districts.

The complete slide deck is linked below.


Interactive results from the 2012 Latino Election Eve Poll are located at