8 percent of Latinos have already voted early, enthusiasm up again in final week

The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll shows that Latinos are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote than ten weeks ago when the initial poll was fielded.  Forty-five percent of Latino voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 compared to 2008.  That number is up from 37% from ten weeks ago when the initial impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll was fielded.  Furthermore, 87% of Latino voters say they are almost certain they will vote on November 6th, which includes 8% of Latino voters have already voted.  In 2008, 84% of Latino registered voters cast a ballot according to Census statistics.

Additionally, the poll shows that a sizable proportion of Latino voters think that on many issues it does not matter whether Obama or Romney is President, and that fighting in Congress is a larger systematic problem. [Full week 10 tracking poll here]

On many issues, a large percentage of Latino voters feel it makes no difference whether Obama or Romney wins.  For example, regarding the prospect of immigration reform, while 52% think chances are better under an Obama presidency, 37% of Latino voters say it makes no difference if Obama wins, the prospects will not change. Regarding the degree of compromise and cooperation in the Congress, 45% of Latino voters say a second Obama term would not improve cooperation in Congress, and 43% a Romney presidency would make no difference.

Overall, Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney.  The 52-point gap matches the largest gap among Latinos this year, also found in the October 1 tracking poll.

For the ten weeks the impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll has been taken the most important issue for Latinos consistently has been the economy and the latest release revealed that Romney and the Republican party have been unable to convince Latino voters that they will be better at improving the it.  Seventy-three percent of Latino voters trust Obama and the Democrats to make the right decisions to improve the economy compared to only 18% that trust Romney and the Republicans.

“The poll shows that this year we can anticipate record participation among Latino voters,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia “However, Latinos are also realistic about what it will take to make real progress on the issues they care about, especially given the lack of cooperation  among our elected representatives in Congress.”

Over the past weeks the number of Latinos who say they are certain to vote has gone from 81% to 84% and now 87%.  At the same time, the percent who say they are more enthusiastic in 2012 has grown from 36% to 40% and now 45%. The percent who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” has gone from 51% to 56% to 59% in the last three weeks.

“The candidates now have one week left to make their case to Latino voters.  While Obama has maintained a large lead among Latinos throughout the campaign, the data shows that over one-third of Latino voters are not sure that things will actually improve under a second Obama term,” said Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions.

“In particular, the tracking data has consistently shown that Latino voters blame fighting in Congress as the reason the economy has not recovered, and on this issue over 40% think that regardless of who wins – Obama or Romney – that neither candidate can bring cooperation to Washington D.C.  In the final week of this campaign, the candidates need to connect with Latino voters and explain how they will somehow be able to break the impasse in Congress and get things done,” added Barreto.

Next Monday, November 5, impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release the final weekly tracking poll, including in-depth analysis of likely voters, Latinos in battleground states, and the final LD Vote Predict model by statistician Dr. Justin Gross.

METHODOLOGY

This is the tenth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross-section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Interviews are conducted in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, all conducted by bilingual interviewers at Latino Decisions calling center, Pacific Market Research. The survey averaged 10 minutes in length, and has an overall margin of error of 5.6% on results that approach a 50/50 distribution. All respondents confirm that they are Hispanic or Latino and currently registered to vote. The survey was fielded October 19-25, 2012

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