A few weeks ago we posted very strong evidence that the national exit poll data for Latinos in Nevada were horribly wrong. Today, we visit the state of Arizona, and find once again the national estimates do not match the actual official vote results. The official national exit poll data indicate Jan Brewer won 28% [...]
Archive | November, 2010
Proving the exit polls wrong – Harry Reid did win over 90% of the Latino vote
The pre-election analysis of polls by Nate Silver at 538 proved accurate in predicting 34 of 37 elections for the U.S. Senate. The three states that were off were Alaska, Colorado, and Nevada. Among these, Nevada was the biggest upset with the average pre-election polls showing Harry Reid trailing by 3 points, and the final [...]
How the National Exit Poll Badly Missed the Latino Vote in 2010
By: Gary Segura & Matt Barreto Latino Decisions estimates differ significantly from the network exit polls and this raises the question of whether we, or they, have a systematic flaw (complete Latino Decisions Election Polls posted here). Examination of the method of selection, clustered interviews, statistical properties of the resulting samples, uneven distribution of minority [...]
Latino Election Eve Poll Results: November 2, 2010
Latino Decisions / NCLR / SEIU / America’s Voice Election Eve Poll First results posted at 8PM Eastern | Preview of results posted here Click State for Election Poll Results
Final Latino Decisions Tracking Poll Shows Dems Winning Latino Vote
After 11 weeks of interviewing, our fall tracking poll comes to an end with this, the 10th Wave Report. Note, however, that the Latino Decisions Track will continue in 2011, though on a bi-monthly basis. On this, the eve of the 2010 Midterm Elections, we find a Latino vote more energized, more enthused, and significantly [...]
