Archive | October, 2010

The Immigrant Vote in California

Latino and Asian Americans are an important part of the American electorate, and this is perhaps most so in California, where the two groups account for nearly one third of the state’s registered voter population. In 2008, for instance, data from the Current Population Survey indicate that Latinos accounted for 22 percent of the registered […]

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Latino Decisions announces election eve poll in 8 states

Latino Decisions is partnering with the National Council of La Raza, SEIU, and America’s Voice to conduct an election eve poll of Latino voters in eight key states: California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Illinois, and Florida. The results will be released here on our website on election night, at 8pm local time in […]

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Latino likely voters favor Dems – 2008 surge voters show lower enthusiasm

With one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, the Latino Decisions tracking poll takes a closer look at who constitutes likely voters in 2010. Likely voter models are traditionally more difficult to assess in midterm elections, and as 538 has noted, different pollsters use very different and wide ranging methodologies, making comparisons problematic. […]

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How to measure Latino influence: a new quantitative model

By: Matt Barreto, Loren Collingwood, Sylvia Manzano The importance of the Latino electorate has been the subject of both academic inquiry and media discourses. The question of Latino influence is frequently limited by an approach that focuses on single variable considerations (e.g., voter turnout or ethnic-targeted campaign spending) that are often contest-specific idiosyncrasies. Relying on […]

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Latino Influence is Holding Parties Accountable

Whether Latino voter turnout is high or low, their influence will register in the 2010 midterms because this time, attention is squarely focused on whether they vote, rather than for whom they vote. It is all but a foregone conclusion that the vast majority of Latino voters will support Democrats. After years of escalating and […]

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Hispanic Vote will decide next Governor of New Mexico

By Gabriel Sanchez, Jillian Medeiros and Vickie Ybarra, University of New Mexico With less than three weeks to go before the mid-term elections the outcome of several important races will be highly influenced by the Hispanic vote. Reports released by Latino Decisions indicate that the Latino vote will be highly influential in as many of […]

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Despite large lead, Dem vote choice still underperforms Democratic partisanship

With little more than two weeks to go until the November election, the most apparent characteristic of this week’s track is stability. Latinos prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates, 59.0% to 22.3%, with 18.7% undecided. This margin is modestly weaker than last week’s but do not meaningfully alter the complexion of the race among Latino […]

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Why state anti-immigration policies turn-off Latino voters

As far back as July 2007 Latino Decisions reported immigration as a top issue for Latinos (see this post here), and immigration remains a top issue according to the tracking poll currently in the field (see October 2010 post here). Previous posts on this website link Latino turnout and vote choice to the issue of […]

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Is the Latino enthusiasm gap closing? Latest LD tracking poll…

With three weeks to go until election day the Latino Decisions tracking poll reports the first signs of increasing enthusiasm and vote intention among Latino registered voters in 2010. Last week the Pew Hispanic Center released a report indicating that just 51% of Latinos planned to vote in the November midterm, however Pew does not […]

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4 weeks until election, economy and immigration still top issues for Latinos

It has been a very busy week since our last post. The issue of immigration jumped back into the spotlight as the Whitman housekeeper saga unfolded (over days), California’s gubernatorial candidates debated on Spanish-langauge television, the posturing continued over the failed defense appropriations vote (which was more about Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and the Dream […]

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