In 1994 California passed the anti-immigrant measure Prop 187, strongly endorsed by Republican Governor Pete Wilson, and since then Latino voters have aligned heavily with the Democratic Party in California. Is Arizona next ? ? ?
There has been considerable discussion over Arizona’s passing of SB1070 and its place in this country’s love-hate relationship with immigration, but two other bills in Arizona make today’s populist movement conflate the debate over citizenship status with that of race and ethnicity. Bill HB2281 passed Governor Brewer’s desk with little fanfare banning ethnic studies courses in the state’s public and charter schools. In addition to this, SB1097 is now making its way through the legislature, requiring schools to report to the state the number of undocumented immigrant children in their student population, along with an estimation of the costs associated with educating those children.
This bill is similar to Proposition 187 in California, which passed and helped propel Governor Pete Wilson to electoral victory as he sought a way to win an election on the heels of an economic recession. However, the Proposition 187 debate in 1994 was a watershed affair for Latinos in California. The debate spurred a wide political mobilization among Latinos not seen since the Chicano Movement era of the 1960’s and the Democratic Party has benefited from growing registration numbers among Latinos since then. The use of illegal immigration as a political tactic to mobilize Anglo voters proved to be successful for Republicans in the short term. Wilson rode a national wave of populism in 1994 and the GOP was able to win power in Congress for the first time in two generations, culminating in Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America”. However, the GOP has not enjoyed the power it once had in California and a slumping national GOP is now searching for a way back into power.
The short-term tactic of mobilizing Anglo voters on the backs of illegal immigrants continues to this day in Arizona. Like Governor Pete Wilson, Governor Jan Brewer is experiencing political difficulties managing the economic restructuring of her state in a deflated economy and needs to find a way to breathe life into her upcoming campaign within the context of a surging populist movement angered by the perception of an irresponsible growth in government. A look at the unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics below in Arizona shows that not only has the recession hit the state particularly hard, but quick also, almost tripling in the span of two years. California’s unemployment rate was equally pernicious though longer lasting (for now), hitting a high of 9.8% in March of 1993 and 7.9% when Californians voted in favor of Prop 187 in November of 1994. California’s unemployment rate hovered around 7% for years after the military base closings in 1990.
The demographics of Arizona today resemble that of California in 1990 also. Its difficult to tell how significant this is for the future of Arizona politics without a detailed look at the institutional resources available to Latinos in order to navigate the social, economic and political landscape of the state. However, on its face the demographic trends at least illustrate the potential for significant electoral change. Perhaps this explains, in addition to the other bills, why Arizona has led the nation with a strict voter identification law, which has been shown to disproportionately impact minorities and the poor. Seen within the context of a growing Latino population, Arizona’s institutional response probably makes sense, depending on how you view the world. Add to this the fact that Latinos in Arizona are quite young, averaging twenty-five years old, while the Non-Hispanic white population is in their electoral prime, forty-four years old. Combined with Latino’s higher birthrates, Latinos are simply pushing Non-Hispanic whites out the back door and the institution is fighting back, as hopeless as it is.
Citizenship status remains the greatest structural barrier to participation for Latinos. More than a third of Latinos in Arizona are not citizens, and therefore ineligible to vote. However, even among citizens, Latinos in Arizona lag their Non-Hispanic white counterparts, with only 37% of Latino citizens voting in 2008 and 52% of eligible residents registered to vote. While Latinos make up 14% of those registered to vote in Arizona, they only make up 12% of Arizona’s voters in 2008. If Latinos participated at the same rates as Non-Hispanic whites, they would make up 21% of Arizona’s voters, nearly double. Even more daunting to the system, if non-citizens were given a clear pathway to citizenship and participated at the same rate, they would make up more than 32%of Arizona’s voters. Rolling out the welcome mat to Latinos may result in doubling their participation rates, and favorable citizenship laws could result in tripling the current electoral power of Latinos. Arizonans seem unwilling to do either without a fight.
This is not to say that either political party is in the dark – yet. There are those in the Republican party and conservative pundits who think the GOP should take a different tack. This is a calculation that has gone on since the GOP’s southern strategy sought to capture white angst in the wake of the civil rights movement throughout the South, while sacrificing the vote of African Americans. A similar calculation is being made in the Southwest and throughout as it pertains to Latinos. It seems as though Pete Wilson’s playbook is being replayed. The decision seems to have been made throughout the health care debate to try to capture the mobilized tea party movement, who were initially about small government, low taxes, etc. Right around February, when the health care battle was winding down, the leadership needed a way to keep the Tea Party relevant into the 2010 election. The decision to make Tancredo the keynote speaker in Colorado’s Tea Party convention was a clear signal to the GOP leadership on what they needed to do to maintain the attention and sanction of the Tea Party, to invigorate the Tea Party with a dose of anti-immigrant sentiment (and anti-minority views in general according to new data from Dr. Christopher Parker at the UW).
Within this context, Latino Decisions polled Latino registered voters in Arizona, asking them questions about how they perceived the motivations behind SB1070 and who was to blame for its passing. Our findings suggest that while the electoral math may make sense to Brewer and even national races to ride a wave of populism on the backs of immigrants, the longer-term implications may put Arizona on a pathway similar to California. Following the Prop 187 debate, researchers such as Dr. Ricardo Ramirez and others found that a hostile social environment prompted a rise in political participation among Latinos, including rates of naturalization. A heightened sense of hostility prompted Latinos to get in the game, as it were.
Latino Decisions asked respondents if they felt SB1070 targeted Latinos because of their ethnicity and they overwhelmingly agreed that if most immigrants in Arizona were white Europeans, SB1070 would not have been passed.
However, it’s not clear if Latinos see SB1070 within the context of a populist movement, such as the Tea Party. When asked if they approve or disapprove of the Tea Party movement, twice as many Latino voters disapproved of the Tea Party movement than approved, but 38% of Latino voters did not know if they approved or disapproved of the Tea Party movement.
Perhaps Latino voters are not seeing the wave of anti-immigrant sentiment through the lens of a populist movement, but through party politics. When asked which party was responsible for passing SB1070, almost 60% of Latino voters placed the blame on Republicans. At the same time, Democrats in Arizona have been quick to not stake out a clear position on the issue of immigration. Interestingly, Latino voters were reluctant to blame Democrats outright, though 33% did say both parties were to blame. What’s more, Democrats were seen as not doing enough to prevent SB1070 from passing. More than 66% of Latino voters polled said that Democrats did not do enough to prevent SB1070 from passing.
Perhaps a sign of the future is the difference between native born and naturalized Latino voters in their view of the racial motivation behind SB1070. When the two groups are broken out in the previous question about white Europeans, naturalized Latino voters were more likely to agree with the sentiment that if Arizona’s immigrants were white Europeans, SB1070 would not have passed. There are two ways to look at this, as a generational effect or a cohort effect (albeit a small one). One may argue that the future is not so bleak for the GOP because the sons and daughters of the naturalized voters are less likely to view attacks on Latinos in racial terms. Yet, our poll found that over 80% of Latinos into the fourth generation believed SB1070 would lead to widespread racial profiling against all Latinos. Thus, one may also argue that the attacks on Latino identity could leave a long lasting impact on today’s newest participants that will stay with them and their children for a long time to come. California’s experience suggests the latter.
Stephen A. Nuño, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics and International Affairs at Northern Arizona University, and a collaborator on the May 2010 Latino Decisions Arizona survey
Do illegals ever thank America for allowing them to use our hospitals that take care of them for free?, our welfare system that gives them money for nothing?, American police, American transportation system, American fire fighters, American freedom? Where is the gratitude?
You are welcome to come to our country LEGALLY and we would welcome you with open arms. If you want to be in this country you would want to learn our history, our culture and OBEY our laws. We are a country of laws, freedom and justice. That is why America is the only country people from across the world will literally die to be able to come to.
Arizona 2010 like Germany 1933?
Germany’s period of liberal democracy lapsed in the early 1930s, leading to the ascent of the Nazis and Adolf Hitler in 1933. Although the constitution of 1919 was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the Nazi government in February and March 1933, commonly known as Gleichschaltung (“coordination”) meant that the government could legislate contrary to the German constitution.*
The constitution became irrelevant; thus, 1933 is usually seen as the end of the Weimar Republic and the beginning of Hitler’s Third Reich.
* {Arizona SB1070,racial profiling,denial of US citizenship to the natural born}
Pedro Pena is one of the problems with conservative hispanics. Your comments have identified you as a conservative Hispanic male. I understand why immigrants come here. However, I am leery of Catholic male hispanics coming to my country with their backward attitudes regarding women, and by your own admission homophobic attitudes. You point the finger at the racist Republicans, but when the shoe is on the other foot, you have no problem dominating women and throwing stones at homosexuals.
AZ. can not inforce their laws , No money its just to get vote . call there bluf that would kill their carrers. if 3,000 illeagals walked down the street singing arest us the Gov. would P## her pantys , and old Joe would hide under his desk
Hello Pedro,
Thanks for your response. Most of the literature I know of does indeed suggest a greater tendency towards what some might call “Republican values”, but so far there is not much suggesting that these issues are significant factors in Latino voting behavior (See Alvarez & Bedolla, 2003 and de la Garza & Cortina, 2007). I do not recall any data that suggests Latinos desire a smaller government, though that isn’t a topic I necessarily spend much time researching . If you know of any data, I’d be interested to see it.
Your assertion about government spending, however, is easy to verify. Go to the link below and download the data on the deficit. Roughly speaking, of the 11 or so trillion dollar national debt, about 9 trillion has come under Republican presidents and 2 trillion from Democrat presidents, going back to Carter.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms
It always amazes me that nitwit progressives believe Hispanics are stupid and will become slobbering Democrats over SB1070.
Our Latino heritage is wrought with the values that the Republican party espouse and reject the low morality of the Democrats.
We are conservative, family oriented and back smaller government and believe marriage is the union of man and wife not man and man.
We Latinos see where Obama’s administration has spent our children and grandchildren’s savings before they are even born.
The sign of the future is exactly what the Tea Party has communicated to the public. Obamacare is a farce, Obama spending will bankrupt the country and the Democrats will stoop to new lows to move us toward Socialism.
Shame on you for writing this drivel.
We see how Obama must apologize for the US instead of celebrate its exceptionalism.
Yes, not to mention the lettuce and tomatoes in the salad they eat, the construction of the house they live in, the preparation of the food they ate last night in a fancy restaurant, the care of their own children, the maintenance of their homes and lawns. Do we ever hear any body complaining about fruits and vegetables they eat, 75% which were picked by undocumented immigrants. The Republicans are worthless, and the Democrats are not much better.
I cannot get over the fact that the anti-immigrant legislators “conveniently” never refer to the federal funds that it receives to educate students regardless of immigration status nor do they ever seek to calculate the net benefits to the economy (the tax base) that Latino immigrants contribute by their mere presence. This is the ultimate luxury of white privilege, hypocrisy.