National Poll Shows That Latino Voters Favor Obama Over McCain

Latino voters favor Obama over McCain, according to Latino Decisions Poll.

A new national survey of Latino voters shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over his rival, Republican John McCain.

The survey found that 60 percent of Latinos planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, while 16 percent were undecided. Latino Decisions, a collaboration between Pacific Market Research and University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, conducted the poll by telephone June 1–12.


If the 2008 election for President were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE: Republican John McCain OR Democrat Barack Obama], for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?
Obama McCain Undecided
All Latino RVs 60% 23% 16%
Likely Voters 63% 24% 13%
Men 61% 25% 13%
Women 60% 21% 19%
US Born 57% 26% 17%
Foreign Born 64% 21% 15%
18 – 39 65% 22% 12%
40 – 59 62% 22% 16%
60 & over 54% 27% 19%
Less $40,000 66% 19% 15%
$40,000 to $79,999 62% 23% 15%
Over $80,000 60% 29% 11%
Democrats 79% 9% 12%
Independents 42% 26% 32%
Republicans 15% 71% 14%
California 66% 20% 14%
New York 65% 20% 15%
Texas 61% 22% 16%
Florida 43% 42% 15%
Southwest states (AZ, CO, NM, NV) 57% 31% 11%

It reached 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Among Democrats, the survey found that 57 percent had supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during primary contests versus 35 percent for Obama. During those months, many political observers questioned whether Obama would successfully woo Latino voters. The results of the survey clearly suggest the Latino vote was not anti-Obama during the primaries, and that going into the general election, he has easily built a large lead among Latino voters.

Obama’s lead among Latinos is consistent among those born in the U.S. as well as those born abroad. Among U.S.-born Latinos, Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 26 percent, and among foreign-born Latinos, 64 percent to 21 percent.

Likewise, Obama does well among Latinos across many states. In California, he leads 66 percent to 20 percent; in New York, 65 percent to 20 percent; in Texas, 61 percent to 22 percent. Combining data in the four southwestern states expected to be key battlegrounds — New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada — Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 31 percent among Latino voters. In Florida, where about half of Latino voters are Cuban-American, Obama has 43 percent to McCain’s 42 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 3.5 percent.

In 2008, the Latino vote is expected to increase to 9 million or roughly 8 percent of voters. By comparison, 7.6 million Latinos voted in 2004 and 5.9 million in 2000.

Methodology

Latino Decisions surveyed 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Registered voters were identified using the complete voter registration databases for each state, and then merged with a Spanish-surname list from the U.S. Census. Phone calls were then randomly made to the phone list of registered voters.

All respondents are verified to be Latino, and verified to be registered voters. The survey was conducted by telephone, and available in English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the Latino respondent.

Interview calls were made by Pacific Market Research in Renton, Washington. The survey carries a margin of error of 3.5%.

Latino Decisions is a joint effort of Pacific Market Research, Dr. Gary Segura, and Dr. Matt Barreto, both of whom are Senior Researchers at Latino Decisions and Professors at the University of Washington.

Methodology

Latino Decisions surveyed 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Registered voters were identified using the complete voter registration databases for each state, and then merged with a Spanish-surname list from the U.S. Census. Phone calls were then randomly made to the phone list of registered voters.All respondents are verified to be Latino, and verified to be registered voters. The survey was conducted by telephone, and available in English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the Latino respondent.

Interview calls were made by Pacific Market Research in Renton, Washington. The survey carries a margin of error of 3.5%.

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