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LD Vote Predict 2016: Latino Voters Poised to Cast Most Lopsided Presidential Vote on Record

LD Vote Predict: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump, 3% other candidates (+/– 5.5%) In 2012 we unveiled our statistical model predicting election day vote called LD Vote Predict, which proved to be extremely accurate.  Using the same hierarchical Bayesian model we now turn to our 2016 tracking poll to estimate election day vote choice for Clinton v. […]

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LD Vote Predict final model: Obama 72.9 vs. Romney 27.1

Final LD Vote and Turnout Predict Projections: Record-breaking Turnout and Lopsided Support for Obama among Latinos Over the final several weeks of polling (Figure 1), the LD Vote Predict estimates for presidential vote choice have been quite stable, leading us to our final projection for a breakdown among actual Latino voters who choose one of […]

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LD Vote Predict Indicates Latinos Voters Will Support Obama Over Romney by 3 to 1 Margin

While President Obama’s support among Latino voters has fallen slightly from its peak prior to the first debate (week 6 of the tracking poll), effects of a poor debate performance by President Obama have been minimal. Furthermore, we find that any small Romney gains were short-lived. We have seen relative stability over the past four […]

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