Gary Segura recently provided a discussion of how exit polls often misrepresent Latino voters (Badly!), pointing out that exit polls often rely on small samples of Latino likely voters, rarely utilize fully bilingual interviews, and utilize samples that are not reflective of the Hispanic/Latino population in the location being polled. This is the first of [...]
Tag Archives | Latino influence
Obama’s Re-election Sets Record Support for Latino Voters
Article originally published at The Nation In his 1996 re-election President Bill Clinton attained 72 percent of the Latino vote, the highest level of Latino support of any presidential candidate—before this year. In 2012, President Obama set a new record, winning his second term in office with the support of 75 percent the Latino electorate. [...]
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LD Vote Predict Indicates Latinos Voters Will Support Obama Over Romney by 3 to 1 Margin
While President Obama’s support among Latino voters has fallen slightly from its peak prior to the first debate (week 6 of the tracking poll), effects of a poor debate performance by President Obama have been minimal. Furthermore, we find that any small Romney gains were short-lived. We have seen relative stability over the past four [...]
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Romney’s Likely Share of Latino Vote Plummets to 23% Based on LD Vote Predict
It seems that Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney’s hopes of reaching a respectable level of support among Latino voters may be dwindling. The Romney campaign’s own stated target of 38% of the Hispanic vote is shrinking from view according to our latest results. After the GOP convention Mitt Romney’s predicted share reached a peak of 31.6%. [...]
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Latino vote pivotal in North Carolina
This blog was originally posted at NBC LATINO It was culture shock when this Arizona gal moved to North Carolina in 2000. The accent, pace of life, and outright friendliness of Southerners shook me, but what most threw me off was the lack of Mexican food. For the first years I was in North Carolina, [...]
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Growth in Latino enthusiasm and Democratic vote numbers disheartening for the GOP
Week 5 of the ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions 2012 Tracking Poll reveals stabilizing numbers in the Presidential election, growing Latino support in the generic House ballot and—perhaps most importantly for Democratic prospects overall and most disheartening for Republicans—significant growth in Latino enthusiasm for the election. [Download full week 5 results here] Horserace and Congressional Vote We find [...]
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Why Hispanic Heritage Month Awareness Really Matters
This article was originally published at NBC LATINO On this eve of Hispanic Heritage Month, I can’t help but feel frustrated. According to a poll released this week by the National Hispanic Media Coalition and Latino Decisions, seven out of every ten non-Latinos believe that Latinos are gang members or criminals. The bad news is [...]
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Introducing LD Turnout Predict
This is the first of two posts introducing new models that Latino Decisions will use in predicting Latino voter turnout along with the choice of candidate by those voters who do turn out to vote. We begin with our plan for estimating Latino voter turnout based on the results of our weekly Latino Decisions/impreMedia tracking [...]
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New 2012 voter registration numbers highlight potential of Latino vote in 9 key states
New analysis of state voter registration counts by Latino Decisions reveals strong growth in Latino registered voters across the 50 states. In July, Ruy Teixeira and William Frey first analyzed the May 2012 Census data, and found that steady increases in the Latino citizen voting age population (CVAP) could decide five key battleground states in 2012. Taking the [...]
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The State of Play in New Mexico: The Role of 2010 Winners in 2012 Race
New Mexico has historically provided some high drama during presidential elections, and is often referred to as both a bell-weather and swing state. In fact, Al Gore squeaked out a razor thin 366 vote victory in New Mexico during the 2000 election, and in 2004 George W. Bush won by just under 6,000 votes in [...]
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Latino Influence 2012
Latino Decisions and America's Voice Education Fund partnered to produce a dynamic map of Latino influence at the state and national level in the 2012 election. See how Latino voter turnout and party support will pave the way to the White House in November.
