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Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming

In 2010, the average of 16 polls of likely voters in Nevada suggested Sharon Angle had a firm 3 point lead, and 538’s Nate Silver gave her an 83.4% chance of winning.  On election night, the results showed Harry Reid with a 5 point win — an 8 point difference from the poll averages.  Why the […]

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