The Impact of SB1070 on the 2012 Latino Vote in Arizona

The last Democratic candidate who won Arizona’s Electoral College votes was Bill Clinton in his bid for re-election in 1996 when Arizona had 8 Electoral College votes. Heading into the 2012 election, Arizona will have 11 Electoral College votes to cast. Like many states in the South and West, Arizona has seen its share of […]

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Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming

In 2010, the average of 16 polls of likely voters in Nevada suggested Sharon Angle had a firm 3 point lead, and 538’s Nate Silver gave her an 83.4% chance of winning.  On election night, the results showed Harry Reid with a 5 point win — an 8 point difference from the poll averages.  Why the […]

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Republicans fail to improve their image among Latinos, but have opportunity on education

The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll released today revealed a continued trend in support for President Obama, and increased dissatisfaction with Republican outreach towards Latino voters, with a possible opening for Romney on his education plan. [Full week 7 results posted here] Overall, seventy-two percent of Latino voters said that if the election were held […]

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Demographic Change and Partisan Gain in Nevada

As the 2012 election moves into its final month, Nevada looms large in most Electoral College prognostications regarding the presidential race and the outcome of the state’s United States Senate race between Democrat Shelley Berkley and Republican Dean Heller may determine partisan control of the upper chamber during the 113th Congress. The fact that Nevada […]

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Foreign Policy and the 2012 Latino Electorate

Latino foreign policy perspectives, with rare exceptions (De la Garza 1980, De le Garza and Pachon 2000, Valeriano 2007) are an unexplored topic in the foreign policy academic and policy community.  The assumption by cultural critics such as the late Samuel Huntington is that Latinos will look to the South for culture, news, and foreign […]

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Romney’s Likely Share of Latino Vote Plummets to 23% Based on LD Vote Predict

It seems that Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney’s hopes of reaching a respectable level of support among Latino voters may be dwindling. The Romney campaign’s own stated target of 38% of the Hispanic vote is shrinking from view according to our latest results. After the GOP convention Mitt Romney’s predicted share reached a peak of 31.6%. […]

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Wave 6 Tracking Poll: Obama widens lead nationally, Romney closer in battleground states

This week’s impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll found slight gains for presidential candidate Mitt Romney in battleground states with 33% certain to or thinking about voting for him. However, the over national polling data shows the strongest week to date for President Obama and the Democrats, with noticeable gains over last week’s poll. [Full wave 6 […]

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Latino vote pivotal in North Carolina

This blog was originally posted at NBC LATINO It was culture shock when this Arizona gal moved to North Carolina in 2000.  The accent, pace of life, and outright friendliness of Southerners shook me, but what most threw me off was the lack of Mexican food.  For the first years I was in North Carolina, […]

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Popular GOP Governor Martinez Disagrees with 47%

As Mitt Romney attempts to move beyond the 47 percent debacle that dominated his campaign last week, the damage control efforts will include reconnecting with several GOP candidates for office who publicly distanced themselves from the comments made in that speech. Among those who have publicly disagreed with the symbolic leader of their party are […]

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Growth in Latino enthusiasm and Democratic vote numbers disheartening for the GOP

Week 5 of the ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions 2012 Tracking Poll reveals stabilizing numbers in the Presidential election, growing Latino support in the generic House ballot and—perhaps most importantly for Democratic prospects overall and most disheartening for Republicans—significant growth in Latino enthusiasm for the election. [Download full week 5 results here] Horserace and Congressional Vote We find […]

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