By: Gary Segura & Matt Barreto Latino Decisions estimates differ significantly from the network exit polls and this raises the question of whether we, or they, have a systematic flaw (complete Latino Decisions Election Polls posted here). Examination of the method of selection, clustered interviews, statistical properties of the resulting samples, uneven distribution of minority [...]
Latino Election Eve Poll Results: November 2, 2010
Latino Decisions / NCLR / SEIU / America’s Voice Election Eve Poll First results posted at 8PM Eastern | Preview of results posted here Click State for Election Poll Results
Final Latino Decisions Tracking Poll Shows Dems Winning Latino Vote
After 11 weeks of interviewing, our fall tracking poll comes to an end with this, the 10th Wave Report. Note, however, that the Latino Decisions Track will continue in 2011, though on a bi-monthly basis. On this, the eve of the 2010 Midterm Elections, we find a Latino vote more energized, more enthused, and significantly [...]
The Immigrant Vote in California
Latino and Asian Americans are an important part of the American electorate, and this is perhaps most so in California, where the two groups account for nearly one third of the state’s registered voter population. In 2008, for instance, data from the Current Population Survey indicate that Latinos accounted for 22 percent of the registered [...]
Latino Decisions announces election eve poll in 8 states
Latino Decisions is partnering with the National Council of La Raza, SEIU, and America’s Voice to conduct an election eve poll of Latino voters in eight key states: California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Illinois, and Florida. The results will be released here on our website on election night, at 8pm local time in [...]
Latino likely voters favor Dems – 2008 surge voters show lower enthusiasm
With one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, the Latino Decisions tracking poll takes a closer look at who constitutes likely voters in 2010. Likely voter models are traditionally more difficult to assess in midterm elections, and as 538 has noted, different pollsters use very different and wide ranging methodologies, making comparisons problematic. [...]
How to measure Latino influence: a new quantitative model
By: Matt Barreto, Loren Collingwood, Sylvia Manzano The importance of the Latino electorate has been the subject of both academic inquiry and media discourses. The question of Latino influence is frequently limited by an approach that focuses on single variable considerations (e.g., voter turnout or ethnic-targeted campaign spending) that are often contest-specific idiosyncrasies. Relying on [...]
Latino Influence is Holding Parties Accountable
Whether Latino voter turnout is high or low, their influence will register in the 2010 midterms because this time, attention is squarely focused on whether they vote, rather than for whom they vote. It is all but a foregone conclusion that the vast majority of Latino voters will support Democrats. After years of escalating and [...]
Hispanic Vote will decide next Governor of New Mexico
By Gabriel Sanchez, Jillian Medeiros and Vickie Ybarra, University of New Mexico With less than three weeks to go before the mid-term elections the outcome of several important races will be highly influenced by the Hispanic vote. Reports released by Latino Decisions indicate that the Latino vote will be highly influential in as many of [...]
Despite large lead, Dem vote choice still underperforms Democratic partisanship
With little more than two weeks to go until the November election, the most apparent characteristic of this week’s track is stability. Latinos prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates, 59.0% to 22.3%, with 18.7% undecided. This margin is modestly weaker than last week’s but do not meaningfully alter the complexion of the race among Latino [...]
Latino Influence 2012
Latino Decisions and America's Voice Education Fund partnered to produce a dynamic map of Latino influence at the state and national level in the 2012 election. See how Latino voter turnout and party support will pave the way to the White House in November.
