Mobilizing Latinos with Identity Appeals: Evidence from Two Voter Turnout Experiments

Past research shows Latinos are more likely to vote and participate in politics when there is a Latino candidate on the ballot and when issues directly affecting the Latino community are at stake in the election, much like in the current election. This research suggests that ethnic solidarity drives participation. At the same time, dozens […]

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Political Diversity in the Latino Electorate

Throughout this presidential election, much has been written about the importance of Latino voters; turnout rates have been projected and political preferences dissected. The tenor of these writings suggest that Latino voters will turn out in record numbers against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and the Republican Party. However, it would be presumptuous to conclude […]

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Latinos in non-battleground states of CA, TX, NY reporting much lower levels of outreach

Latino voter contact rates in California, New York and Texas much lower than in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina With two weeks to go before Election 2016, Texan Latino voters are most  likely to have been ignored, and less certain to vote WASHINGTON, D.C. – With less than two weeks to go […]

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New Data Shows Latino Electorate Continues to Experience Wide Variety of Voting Problems at Polling Place

Long waits, lack of Spanish assistance and issues with identification among problems noted by Latino registered voters. New letter to DOJ calls for deployment of election monitors to areas of concern to ensure voter-intimidation does not affect Latinos and other underrepresented communities   WASHINGTON, D.C. – With two weeks to go before Election Day, the […]

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Latino Tracking Poll Week 6: Clinton 74 – Trump 15

The Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll in partnership with NALEO and Telemundo Noticias is out for October 24, 2016 and shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 74% to 15% (+59).  At this exact same point in 2012, the weekly tracking poll showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 71% to 20% (+51).  Back in 2012, 40% […]

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Florida Latinos voting for Hillary Clinton by wide margins

The 2016 presidential election marks a turning in the history of Latino politics in Florida. According to the latest battleground poll by the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) and Latino Decisions, the majority of Florida’s Latino voters are backing the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, by wide margins. In the poll, Latinos were asked […]

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Expert Opinions: What constitutes a good vs. bad Latino poll

During a webinar and telephonic briefing discussion hosted by NCLR yesterday, experts on political polling and Latino voters analyzed how the national exit polls and many polls throughout the election cycle consistently miss the mark when it comes to Latino voters – and discussed why that is problematic for good post-election analysis and resultant political […]

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Policy Issues Driving the 2016 Latino Vote

Since the launch five weeks ago of the NALEO Educational Fund/Noticias Telemundo/Latino Decisions tracking poll, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has enjoyed a commanding lead among Latino voters. In the first week she led by 53 points (71 percent for Clinton vs 18 percent favoring Trump). By week three, her lead had grown to 57 […]

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Latino voters say Democrats Are Mobilizing them to Vote by 3-1 margin

There are an estimated 27 million Latinos eligible to vote in 2016. While Latinos constitute about 11 percent of the national electorate, their share significantly increases in battleground states such as Arizona (22 percent of the electorate), Colorado (14.5 percent), Florida (18 percent), Nevada (17 percent), New Mexico (40 percent) and Texas (28 percent). The […]

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LD Vote Predict 2016: Latino Voters Poised to Cast Most Lopsided Presidential Vote on Record

LD Vote Predict: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump, 3% other candidates (+/– 5.5%) In 2012 we unveiled our statistical model predicting election day vote called LD Vote Predict, which proved to be extremely accurate.  Using the same hierarchical Bayesian model we now turn to our 2016 tracking poll to estimate election day vote choice for Clinton v. […]

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