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The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016

In 2012, polling by Latino Decisions found that Mitt Romney won the support of just 23 percent of Latino voters. In 2016, the Republican presidential candidate will need twice that support to win the White House. The cause for the GOP’s “Latino deficit” is no secret and can largely be explained by two interrelated factors: […]

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Welcome to “The New Nevada”

The June 1st conclusion to the 78th Session of the Nevada Legislature brought to the end one of the most improbable and significant sessions in the state’s history. Improbable in that a state under unified Republican control for the first time since 1929 increased taxes by $1.1 billion for the biennium and appropriated the bulk […]

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So Goes Colorado…

In a recent article in the Los Angeles Times Mark Barabak examined the importance of the Mountain West, particularly Colorado, to Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories. Echoing many of the themes detailed in America’s New Swing Region, Barabak noted that the Democrats’ recent gains have served to shift a region that was long a […]

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Latino Influence in the 2014 House Elections: Part II

In a prior post I examined what occurred in the 24 Republican held tier one and tier two Latino Influence House Districts during the 2014 elections. My analysis revealed that while there were a number of potentially competitive districts, the Democrats’ inability to recruit and fund quality challengers resulted in a number of Republicans who […]

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Latino Influence in the 2014 House Elections: Part I

During the 2014 election cycle Latino Decisions identified US House districts where Latino voters were positioned to be influential.  Specifically, we considered districts where the 2010 Latino voting age population either exceeds or approaches the 2012 House margin of victory, as well as seats won by the opposition party’s presidential candidate. Depending upon these factors, […]

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Latino Influence & the Politics of Immigration in the 2014 U.S. Senate Elections

To date, much of the evidence suggestive of Latino electoral influence has focused on statewide races, particularly presidential elections in swing states such as Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. However, with no presidential election on the ballot in 2014, the ability of Latino voters, and by extension the politics of immigration, to affect statewide federal races […]

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Freedom Summit Signals to the Latino Electorate

What is the meaning of this past weekend’s Freedom Summit for Latino voters and their options in the 2016 Republican primaries and general election? The answer to this question necessarily begins with the political identity of the event’s sponsor, Iowa Rep. Steve King, one of the most vocal opponents of immigration reform in Congress. He […]

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Schaller’s new book on the dynamics of the contemporary GOP: The Stronghold

Professor Thomas Schaller’s new book, The Stronghold: How Republicans Captured Congress but Surrendered the White House, published this week by Yale University Press, is a timely and provocative study that is quickly earning high praise from scholars, journalists, and political observers. The publisher provides this summary of Schaller’s latest work: Once the party of presidents, […]

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Paying for an Unkept Promise: LD Column on Noticias.Univision.com

The latest Latino Decisions column by David R. Ayón  published on the Univision news website this week examines how Latino voters, leaders, and organizations might respond to President Obama’s decision to put off executive action on immigration until after the November election. The decision to delay action undercuts Latino voter enthusiasm in significant fashion. Ayón proposes […]

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LD column at NoticiasUnivision.com: Moment of Truth for Obama & Democrats

The latest Latino Decisions column published on the Univision television network news website Noticias.Univision.com, written by Senior Strategist David R. Ayón highlights the mounting chorus of criticism that President Obama has been subjected to throughout the summer. The question is if Latino voters —  who want administrative relief for undocumented immigrants in lieu of legislated immigration reform — can […]

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