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On the Prospects of a Blue Arizona

This post summarizes a recent publication from the journal Politics of Groups and Identities, the full article can be read here. The Republican Party’s path to 270 Electoral Votes has become increasingly narrow.  With formerly Republican states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado now up for grabs, Republican presidential candidates must win virtually every remaining […]

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The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016

In 2012, polling by Latino Decisions found that Mitt Romney won the support of just 23 percent of Latino voters. In 2016, the Republican presidential candidate will need twice that support to win the White House. The cause for the GOP’s “Latino deficit” is no secret and can largely be explained by two interrelated factors: […]

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Welcome to “The New Nevada”

The June 1st conclusion to the 78th Session of the Nevada Legislature brought to the end one of the most improbable and significant sessions in the state’s history. Improbable in that a state under unified Republican control for the first time since 1929 increased taxes by $1.1 billion for the biennium and appropriated the bulk […]

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DACA’s Three-Year Anniversary and its Legacy for 2016 Election

Today marks the third anniversary of President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive order, a critical moment in immigration policy history. DACA directed the Department of Homeland Security to temporarily defer action on young immigrants living in the United States who came to the U.S. at an early age undocumented with their […]

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5 Policy Issues that Show Why Jeb Bush Will Lose the Latino Vote

After Mitt Romney’s disastrous performance with Latino voters in 2012, some election observers have suggested Jeb Bush is the obvious candidate to help Republicans win over Latino voters. Bush’s supposed advantages are based on three specific observations—that the Bush family has historically had a more positive relationship with this community than other candidates in the […]

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Loretta Sanchez and the Growth of Latino Political Power in California

In the next few days, Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is likely to announce her candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Barbara Boxer. This will widely be seen as a positive development by Latinos who are eager to bolster their political power. Indeed, the political ascension of Loretta Sanchez parallels the rise of […]

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So Goes Colorado…

In a recent article in the Los Angeles Times Mark Barabak examined the importance of the Mountain West, particularly Colorado, to Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories. Echoing many of the themes detailed in America’s New Swing Region, Barabak noted that the Democrats’ recent gains have served to shift a region that was long a […]

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Where Did All the Latino Voters Go in 2014? The Case of Nevada

In 2004 John Judis and Ruy Teixeria wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority in which they argued that changing demographics were reshaping the country’s political geography in a manner that would help the Democrats win in states where just a decade before the party rarely competed. The data in Figure 1 summarizing the racial and ethnic […]

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Missed Opportunities: Assessing Latino Turnout in 2014

Across the board voter turnout was down in 2014. In 2010 about 91 million votes were cast and turnout among the voting eligible population was 41.8 percent. Four years later only 81 million peopled voted for a turnout rate of 35.9 percent according to data collected by Professor Michael McDonald. Looking at Democratic losses in […]

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Black-Brown Tensions in California’s 2016 Senate Race? Don’t Believe The Hype

Horserace analogies are frequently used to describe political campaigns. However, if a Latino Democrat emerges in the 2016 Senate race, a boxing metaphor is likely to be used. The anticipated bout may pit Kamala Harris and her African American supporters against a Latino candidate with his or her co-ethnic supporters. A recent story bore the […]

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