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The Rundown on Latino Voter Election Eve Polling and Latino Exit Polls

Washington, DC – On a press call and webinar held today, Matt Barreto, UCLA Professor of Political Science and Chicano Studies, and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, presented the results of the Latino Decisions Election Eve poll. The key finding: Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 79-18% margin.   Barreto also highlighted why […]

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Latino Electorate On Track For Historic Turnout In 2016

According to the latest data from our national tracking poll, Latino Decisions projects that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016. This estimate represents a three percent to five percent increase over the 2012 Latino turnout rate which, coupled with the dramatic growth of the age-eligible Latino population, will yield between 1.9 […]

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Mobilizing Latinos with Identity Appeals: Evidence from Two Voter Turnout Experiments

Past research shows Latinos are more likely to vote and participate in politics when there is a Latino candidate on the ballot and when issues directly affecting the Latino community are at stake in the election, much like in the current election. This research suggests that ethnic solidarity drives participation. At the same time, dozens […]

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Latino voters say Democrats Are Mobilizing them to Vote by 3-1 margin

There are an estimated 27 million Latinos eligible to vote in 2016. While Latinos constitute about 11 percent of the national electorate, their share significantly increases in battleground states such as Arizona (22 percent of the electorate), Colorado (14.5 percent), Florida (18 percent), Nevada (17 percent), New Mexico (40 percent) and Texas (28 percent). The […]

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LD Vote Predict 2016: Latino Voters Poised to Cast Most Lopsided Presidential Vote on Record

LD Vote Predict: 82% Clinton, 15% Trump, 3% other candidates (+/– 5.5%) In 2012 we unveiled our statistical model predicting election day vote called LD Vote Predict, which proved to be extremely accurate.  Using the same hierarchical Bayesian model we now turn to our 2016 tracking poll to estimate election day vote choice for Clinton v. […]

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Latina Voters Say Adiós To Trump

Donald Trump’s ongoing derogatory remarks toward women have generated widespread criticism. Not only did he recently say that Hillary Clinton did not have “a presidential look,” but in the first presidential debate Clinton reminded viewers that Trump demeaned Alicia Machado, the Venezuelan Miss Universe, as “Miss Piggy” and “Miss Housekeeping.” These and other degrading remarks […]

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Announcing the 2016 Latino Tracking Poll – Week 1

Today Latino Decisions released the first wave of the 2016 election weekly tracking poll in partnership with NALEO and Noticias Telemundo.  The poll will continue for 8 weekly installments every Monday through the day before Election Day and will track Latino vote choice, enthusiasm, evaluations of party outreach to Latinos, the most important issues, and […]

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Why Kamala Harris can’t win California without the Latino vote

On June 7, 2016 Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez made history. In November California will see the first ever U.S. Senate general election match-up between two Democrats.  Not only two Democrats but two high-profile women of color, ensuring that a minority female will follow Barbara Boxer as a U.S. Senator from California in 2017. While many […]

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On the Prospects of a Blue Arizona

This post summarizes a recent publication from the journal Politics of Groups and Identities, the full article can be read here. The Republican Party’s path to 270 Electoral Votes has become increasingly narrow.  With formerly Republican states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado now up for grabs, Republican presidential candidates must win virtually every remaining […]

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The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016

In 2012, polling by Latino Decisions found that Mitt Romney won the support of just 23 percent of Latino voters. In 2016, the Republican presidential candidate will need twice that support to win the White House. The cause for the GOP’s “Latino deficit” is no secret and can largely be explained by two interrelated factors: […]

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