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Archive | 2010 Polls/Elections RSS feed for this section

How the Exit Polls Misrepresent Latino Voters, and Badly

Did you know that, despite running exceedingly racialized anti-Latino advertisements in Nevada’s Senate race, Sharon Angle got 30% of the Latino vote? Jan Brewer also did well, attracting an above-average 28% share of Arizona’s Hispanic vote just months after signing SB1070 into law.  Moreover, Meg Whitman received 21% of the African American vote in her […]

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The GOP is Sleepwalking Through the DREAM Act

Cross-posted from The Americano, December 14, 2010 The 2010 election has lulled the GOP into its own dream act. In a year in which GOP congressional candidates benefited profoundly from the slumping economy and an anti-incumbent populist movement, the leadership is convinced it had something to do with their anti-immigrant stance. Yet, lost in the […]

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Latino Decisions tracking poll post-election panel discredits National Exit Poll

Latino Decisions interview 1,870 Latino registered voters nationwide across 13 weeks, beginning August 9 and ending on October 28. In the weeks after the election, we attempted to re-contact those registered voters from November 3 – 19, 2010 to ask whether, why, and for whom they voted. Of the original 1,870, we were able to […]

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Proving the exit polls wrong 2: Jan Brewer did not win 28% of the Latino vote

A few weeks ago we posted very strong evidence that the national exit poll data for Latinos in Nevada were horribly wrong. Today, we visit the state of Arizona, and find once again the national estimates do not match the actual official vote results. The official national exit poll data indicate Jan Brewer won 28% […]

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Proving the exit polls wrong – Harry Reid did win over 90% of the Latino vote

The pre-election analysis of polls by Nate Silver at 538 proved accurate in predicting 34 of 37 elections for the U.S. Senate. The three states that were off were Alaska, Colorado, and Nevada. Among these, Nevada was the biggest upset with the average pre-election polls showing Harry Reid trailing by 3 points, and the final […]

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How the National Exit Poll Badly Missed the Latino Vote in 2010

By: Gary Segura & Matt Barreto Latino Decisions estimates differ significantly from the network exit polls and this raises the question of whether we, or they, have a systematic flaw (complete Latino Decisions Election Polls posted here). Examination of the method of selection, clustered interviews, statistical properties of the resulting samples, uneven distribution of minority […]

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Final Latino Decisions Tracking Poll Shows Dems Winning Latino Vote

After 11 weeks of interviewing, our fall tracking poll comes to an end with this, the 10th Wave Report. Note, however, that the Latino Decisions Track will continue in 2011, though on a bi-monthly basis. On this, the eve of the 2010 Midterm Elections, we find a Latino vote more energized, more enthused, and significantly […]

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The Immigrant Vote in California

Latino and Asian Americans are an important part of the American electorate, and this is perhaps most so in California, where the two groups account for nearly one third of the state’s registered voter population. In 2008, for instance, data from the Current Population Survey indicate that Latinos accounted for 22 percent of the registered […]

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Latino Decisions announces election eve poll in 8 states

Latino Decisions is partnering with the National Council of La Raza, SEIU, and America’s Voice to conduct an election eve poll of Latino voters in eight key states: California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Illinois, and Florida. The results will be released here on our website on election night, at 8pm local time in […]

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Latino likely voters favor Dems – 2008 surge voters show lower enthusiasm

With one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, the Latino Decisions tracking poll takes a closer look at who constitutes likely voters in 2010. Likely voter models are traditionally more difficult to assess in midterm elections, and as 538 has noted, different pollsters use very different and wide ranging methodologies, making comparisons problematic. […]

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