Originally published at The New York Times.com on May 23, 2012 In 2004, President George W. Bush made a concerted effort to attract Latino voters, and was rewarded with about 40 percent of the Latino vote. Those votes helped Bush win battleground states like Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada, which all have large and [...]
Author Archive | Matt Barreto
Moral values not a defining issue for Latino voters
In November 2004 the New York Times proclaimed “Moral values cited as a defining issue of the election” and numerous anecdotal claims were made that President Bush benefited from a spate of same-sex marriage initiatives across the country that boosted turnout among church-going social conservatives. As part of this supposed “moral values” wave, some even [...]
Projecting Latino Electoral Influence in 2012: What Percent of the Latino Vote Candidates Need to Win Each State
Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D. and Gary M. Segura, Ph.D., Latino Decisions We get asked the question about “Latino influence” from the press weekly—some weeks, daily. Answering the question is easy if you just make it up, and a fair number of people earn a good living doing so. But our goal has always been to [...]
The 3 Latino Electorates Within Florida and How they Differ
With all the newfound interest in the Latino vote in Florida almost all coverage has missed an interesting and very important nuance – there is not one single Latino electorate in Florida, but rather, at least three distinct blocs. In order to best understand Latino preferences in the Sunshine state on Tuesday, and more so [...]
Over 80% of Latino voters support tax increases alongside cuts in the debt debate
A new poll released today by impreMedia and Latino Decisions reveals that the August debt deal brokered by President Obama and Republicans in Congress is out of touch with what Latino voters wanted in the debt debate. When asked which approach they prefer to reduce the deficit, 46% of Latino registered voters stated raising taxes [...]
Perceptions of party outreach to Latinos key to 2012 vote
Yesterday, Pilar Marrero of impreMedia reported that Latino voters were “dissatisfied with political parties” and despite majority approval ratings, Latino support for Obama is tepid heading into 2012. Despite a 73% approval rating, only 41% of Latino registered voters say they are certain to vote for Obama in 2012. This 32 point gap could spell [...]
Where Latino Votes Will Matter in 2012
With the recent release of the national Census data pundits have been quick to point out the obvious: the Latino population is growing! As if data points from the annual Current Population Survey, and now American Community Survey did not already tell us this on a yearly basis, the official 2010 decennial census now confirms [...]
Why the DREAM Act will matter in the 2012 election
In December 2005 H.R. 4437, aka the “Sensenbrenner Bill” was passed by the House of Representatives and the issue of immigration became front page news in American politics. The bill asked for the immediate deportation of all undocumented immigrants, and would make it a crime to assist undocumented immigrants in any way, punishable by up [...]
Latino influence states even more important in 2012 electoral college map
In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won the important Latino battleground states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida on his way to winning 365 total electoral college votes. The 46 electors in those four key states back in 2008 were part of the coalition, but in the ended they served more to run [...]
Senators who opposed DREAM Act may face Latino roadblocks in 2012
Yesterday the U.S. Senate failed to invoke cloture on the DREAM Act (HR 5281), ending the chance for any legislative accomplishments on the issue of immigration. While much of the last two years was spent addressing the issues of health care reform, and the economy, to Latino voters a third issue loomed as being equally [...]
