Yesterday the U.S. Senate failed to invoke cloture on the DREAM Act (HR 5281), ending the chance for any legislative accomplishments on the issue of immigration. While much of the last two years was spent addressing the issues of health care reform, and the economy, to Latino voters a third issue loomed as being equally important for the President and Congress to address – immigration reform. In our final tracking poll released November 1, 2010 Latino voters told us that immigration was the second most important issue, just behind the economy. In our 2010 election eve poll 48% of Latino voters said jobs/economy was the top issue of concern, but immigration loomed as a major issue with 37% calling it the top issue to be addressed. And when asked specifically about the DREAM Act, the same poll found 75% of Latino voters said it was very or extremely important for the DREAM Act to be passed by Congress, with another 13% saying somewhat important — that’s 88% all told who thought it was important for Congress to pass DREAM.
Last week, Prof. Stephen Nuño posted analysis of the DREAM Act by party affiliation which found that 80% of Latino Republicans supported the DREAM Act, as did 90% of Latino Democrats. Among foreign born Latino voters 94% supported passage of DREAM, and among U.S. born Latinos 86% supported its passage. It was clear from more than two-dozen polls we conducted in 2010 that immigration reform was a top issue of concern for Latino voters, and yesterday those hopes and dreams for just a small start to comprehensive reform were shattered by the 45 Senators who did not support moving forward with the DREAM Act.
Among the 45 Senators who did not support moving ahead with the DREAM Act were 6 Democrats and 39 Republicans. While Republicans provided the lion’s share of opposition, with 3 Republicans voting yes, the bill could have achieved 61 votes had all Democrats stood together and voted yes. Overall, Senators from “Latino influence” states were far more likely to vote yes for DREAM, than those from states with very small Latino populations – however notable exceptions are the Senators from Texas and Arizona. Among the 16 states that have a Latino population share of 10% or higher, 69% of Senators voted yes. The 16 states where the Latino population was 5 – 10% of the state total, voted 56% in favor of DREAM. As the Latino population in a state decreased, so too did votes for DREAM, with only half voting yes in states where Latinos are 3 – 5% of the population, and just 36% voting yes in states where Latinos are less than 3%.
With such a strong relationship here between Latino constituents and support for the DREAM Act, a significant question is why did both Senators from Texas, and both Senators from Arizona oppose the DREAM Act? In 2010, Latino voters were hailed as an important voting bloc which swung at least three competitive U.S. Senate races to the Democrats. In 2012, twelve Senators who voted no on the DREAM Act are up for election, and seven are from states where Latinos make up at least 8% of the population, or more than enough to sway the outcome in a tight contest. Leading this pack of anti-DREAM incumbents up for election in 2012, when public approval of the Senate is likely to remain low, are Kay Bailey Hutchison from Texas (36.9% Latino) and Jon Kyl from Arizona (30.8% Latino). In the Washington Post, Edward Schumacher-Matos noted the day before the vote that Hutchison could be vulnerable in 2012 if she voted no. With strong challengers and voters weary of incumbents, both Hutchison and Kyl could be in significant trouble if they can’t crack 20% of the Latino vote in 2012.
Add to the list John Ensign of Nevada (26.5% Latino) where Latinos single-handedly turned away the anti-immigrant candidate in 2010, and Scott Brown who will almost certainly be in tight contest in left-leaning Massachusetts (8.8% Latino). Across the aisle, there may be little reason for Latinos in Nebraska (8.3% Latino) to continue supporting Ben Nelson who voted no on DREAM.
As the 2012 election cycle takes shape, and the issues are defined and debated, it is unlikely that votes on the DREAM Act will be forgotten by Latino voters, 88% of whom supported the bills passage. If any lesson was learned in 2010, it should be to not underestimate the Latino electorate, which is growing in size, and influence in each successive election.
Thank you for an informative post. In addition to the Senators you list, Senator LeMieux of Florida may also face a “Latino roadblock” in 2012. Although he did not run this year, and will leave office in January, he is expected to run for the seat currently held by Senator Bill Nelson, which will be contested in 2012. Sen. LeMieux may well regret his vote even earlier than the others. The Latino electorate generally has only a modest impact on the Republican primaries of most states, but Florida is of course an exception.
Senators know what side their bread is buttered on.
Better to anger the few illegal latinos who cannot vote, than the majority of voters who are against illegal immigration.
Only last time I checked, the majority of likely (legal) voters favored the DREAM Act because they’re smart enough to understand that giving those illegals a chance would benefit the economy, the military, etc.
It seems the only people who oppose this are ignorant and xenophobic people. Or, in other words, Republicans.
You an idiot if you think that calling someone a name will help them change their mind.
I am a Latino, and I don’t agree with the Dream Act.
With a 10% unemployment rate what would be the benefit for a United States Citizen to flood the work market with additional workers.
This is Bill is not fair for United States Citizens, and Legal immigrants.
Tell that to Sharon Angle.
Hey Karlene – do you know how to add? Gallup poll one week ago found 54% of the American public supported passing the DREAM Act, 42% opposed. That means a majority of voters support immigration reform that provides a path to citizenship.
I look forward to your thoughtful response!
My daughter is married to a nice guy that entered the country when he was 7 and went to public school that we all paid for and now he cant work after we invested in his education since he was 7 yrs old HOW STUPID are the senators
How stupid are you? This is another example of why it must end! These people are here illegally, I don’t care if he is your son in law.
Micheal, it’s people like you who make me cringe out of disbelief. Have a little empathy.
How would you feel if you had been brought to America at 7, growing up here, living here, trying to be all that you can, as American as anyone else and then you try to get a job to pay for college and you find out you are “illegal.”
Would you tell yourself “I’m here illegally, no excuses.” and then simply hop on a pl.. (whoops no passport) boat back to Guatemala rather than pursue your dream of becoming a doctor? Would you?
LOOK MY PARENTS BOTH CAME HERE RISKING THEIR LIVES. STARVING AND LONELY FOR DAYS TO GIVE THERE CHILDREN A OPPORTUNITY FOR A BETTER LIFE. I DONT CARE WHO YOU ARE SHOW SOME RESPECT.YOU WOULD DO THE SAME FOR YOUR CHILDREN. STOP BEING SELFISH! ME AND MY BROTHER ARE STUDYING TO BE ARCHITECTS AND DOCTORS AND MY BROTHER IS SERVING IN THE NAVY. MY PARENTS WORKED IN THE FIELDS EVERYDAY TO FEED US, AND I’LL BE DAMBED IF PEOPLE LIKE MY PARENT THAT HAVE GIVEN SO MUCH FOR THIS COUNTY WILL NOT BE RESPECTED. THIS LAND IS ~OUR~ LAND. BESIDES COMPETITION MIGHT MAKE YOU WORK HARDER
if she’s married to him,can’t she sponsor him for citizenship?
Democrats, I’m not voting for you next time! Latinos lets vote for the Green Party in 2012!!!!
This one is easy……the polling data were flawed.The majority of Americans are not for immigration reforms which provide for amnesty of any type. They forced this crap down our throats in the early 80s when they gave amnesty to 22 Million criminals then. they further promised to secure the border so this would never again happen. Well, here we go again. they are attempting to further dilute the vote by introducing a mass number of new dependents upon our welfare system. Therby assuring the addition of millions of naeive voters who will continue to vote for their handouts.
This must end. NO AMNESTY PERIOD! if these people wish to attain citizenship, then they first need to show a willingness to follow our laws!
wake up America, it is only your future at stake here. Those of us who have played by the rules cannot pay for this anymore. This whole system is unsustainable. We cannot financially support the world.
I guess I should reply cause Latinos are strong
in #’s but like African-Americans not much clout or power. You have more Gov’s then AA’s & more strength in Congress. However, the constant clamor to return illegals to their country of origin by Whites & Repubs. discounts the
truth that America was founded on illegal activities, etc. guns from America fight many many worldwide wars & fuel drug trafficing. The NRA knows this but they condone illegal activity like the sham of selling guns at gun shows. Hyprocracy & self motivation is the American Way.
i am so scared of latinos who vote , mira cuantos hay if they voted maybe republicans would not lead, please
NO to the dream act , and quit asking for it because we will not let it pass
I would like to point out that this wasn’t an amnesty law. It was meant to help the children who didn’t make the choice to come here illegally. Their parents made the choice, and they are the ones now suffering for that.
I will not forget kay. She is ready to retire. So we will help her to go to greener pasture.
Thanks for such a great article. I just recently blogged about it: http://politicsroom.com/2010/12/22/the-future-of-the-republican-party/
I think that Republicans are just plain dumb to not think about their future and only think about the now. They do the same thing on civil issues… just want to take us back to the 16th century…
I became so upset when I read some comments here. The ignorance that some people have it’s incredible. First of all no one is native to this country except Native Americans, so all those who think they are above you are absolutely wrong probably your ancestor came here illegally too. Second this is not for everyone it is for children that were brought here by their parents when they were small. Why should a child have to pay for their parents mistake? Do we condemn children whose parents are on the death penalty or in jail as well just because their parents broke the law. The U.S is the only country these children know, they were raised here, they made friends here they have made their lives here!These are kids who probably gave their all throughout school just so when it is time to go to college they are denied that right because they came here illegally when they were to young to decide what is wrong and what is right. We are wasting spectacular minds to waste and turning them into criminals. If you are accused of being a criminal your whole life sooner or later you will believe it and then actually become one. Asian countries are advancing more than the U.S, why because they give their people an education, the U.S could do that too if it promoted education instead of denying it to those who are capable. America is a place where dreams come true, where anything impossible, where justice prevails. It is not these kids faults they are were they are now, if we deport them, we would be sending them to a place where they don’t even know where they’re going. As for the taxes, news flash ILLEGALS PAY TAXES, but if it bothers you that much than why not turn these kids into something that will give back to the economy, if we turn these kids into citizens it means that once you’re retired guess who’s gonna be paying for your retirement plan with their tax money : ). God Bless America, Home of the Free
To “non-ignorant” Cameron:
1. “Native Americans” are not native here either – they came from elsewhere.
2. Most of these kids speak their native tongues in their illegal homes, so they’ll do just fine in their native countries.
3. Wasting “spectacular minds”? Maybe some, but hardly most.
4. ILLEGALS PAY TAXES??? You mean sales tax on the soda they buy at a supermarket, or income tax? They get paid cash, so they don’t pay income tax, unless they are using a stolen social security number. And if these homes somehow do pay income tax, they really don’t because most illegals make very little, and the poorest here pay no tax.
Joee do your research please and search for ITIN
1)Yes, Native Americans came from elsewhere, but since they were here first, it’s their country, and therefore anyone else who is here without their permission (which is everyone else, since all treaties allowing such were broken by the other party or parties involved) is here illegally, which was Cameron’s point.
2) Just because you speak the language of another country doesn’t mean you’ll do just as well there, since you’ll be thrust into a different culture with it’s different history, assumptions, attitudes, behavior, etc.
3) It doesn’t matter if it’s some or most, waste is still waste. And consider this: if we deport those kids, we’ll just have been educating the citizens of other countries at our expense, which is wasteful and counterproductive.
4) Yes, illegals pay taxes. First, they make so little they spend all of it, so all of their income is directly or indirectly subject to sales tax (except for food, which is not subject to it, by the way), Second, even if you are paid cash, you are still paying Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid taxes via your employer…however, illegals, lacking a Social Security number, can’t take money out of the system, (by the way, it’s incredibly difficult to steal a SSN these days, there are too many safeguards in the system now, and even if you could, how could you and the real owner both collect? The number would be flagged long before the first check was even issued (for example, the first time contributions came from the same person living at two different physical addresses), you would both have to show up in court at some point, at which time you would be caught), and these extra funds in the system benefit people who can take them out (which group includes all but the wealthy).
How would you like us to pay for all of this? If you came to America illegally, okay, you’re here. But once your here, sink or swim. We are done paying to prop up those whose fault it is or fault it isn’t. You want your kids in college, great, pay for it.
How should we pay for this? Those with a college degree earn twice as much in their lifetime as those who don’t. If you do the math, that means we could pay for *everyone* to get a degree and over a working lifetime, for every dollar spent, get 3 to 4 dollars back in federal income tax revenue. So this not only pays for itself, it actually makes a huge profit.
But ok, if you don’t want to “prop people up,” consider the fact that whites are 67% of the population but 85% of welfare recipients…or to put it another way, whites are *at least* 27% “lazier” (for such is the way right-wingers refer to those on welfare) than Latinos.
Perhaps you’ll want to reconsider your position now?
Amen to that!
Those who vote for it, will have to face American voters next election. These people have no respect for our laws, otherwise they would not be here protesting for us to in effect reward their criminality. how much good sense does that make? Oh yeah, and how many more jobs do you wish to permanently exclude your children from having, so as to make even a modest living?
@Michael. Please learn how to write in English before posting something.