Latino vote may provide critical margin for Brown, Boxer in California

A new poll released today by Latino Decisions, in partnership with the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California shows Latino voters favor Democrat Jerry Brown over Republican Meg Whitman by a margin of 54% to 28% with 18% still undecided. At an estimated 19% of the overall California electorate, this 26-point margin among Latinos provides Brown with all 5 points of his 49% to 44% lead statewide, as reported by the Los Angeles Times. In fact, among non-Latinos the race is tied 48% to 48% with 4% undecided.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Latino likely voters favor Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer by an even larger margin, 66% for Boxer to 26% for Republican Carly Fiorina, and 8% undecided. Once again, this 40-point margin among Latinos provides Boxer with all 8 points of her 51% to 43% lead statewide. Among non-Latinos in the U.S. Senate race, 47% favor Boxer, 47% Fiorina, and 6% undecided.


Despite lead, Brown still under performs: Though Brown has a 24-point margin among Latinos, his estimated 54% of the vote among likely Latino voters is far lower than Boxer’s 66%. When asked what their party identification was, 69% said Democrat and 21% Republican. Thus, Brown trails Latino Democratic affiliation by 15 points.


About the poll
As part of the USC / Los Angeles Times poll of California registered voters, Latino Decisions conducted an oversample of Latino registered voters in California. A total of 400 Latino registered voters were interviewed by Latino Decisions, by telephone from September 16 – 22, 2010. Name and phone number samples were provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI) which included about 12% cell-phone only Latino households. Respondents were first screened by Spanish surname based on the name listed on the publically available list of registered voters in California. Respondents then confirmed if they were Latino and currently registered to vote in California, and only self-identified Latino registered voters continued with the survey. The survey was available in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, and all interviewers were fully bilingual. Overall, 40% of the Latino oversample interviews were conducted in Spanish, and 60% in English. The 400 completed interviews carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted the non-Latino portion of the USC / Los Angeles Times poll, and Latino Decisions conducted only the Latino oversample. The Latino oversample methodology was overseen by Political Scientists, Dr. Matt A. Barreto and Dr. Gary M. Segura of Latino Decisions.

  • Full results of entire survey posted here
  • Contact Barreto @ matt.barreto@latinodecisions.com or 909.489.2955 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting              909.489.2955      end_of_the_skype_highlighting
  • Contact Segura @ gary.segura@latinodecisions.com or 206.280.5069

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