A new poll released today by Latino Decisions, in partnership with the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California shows Latino voters favor Democrat Jerry Brown over Republican Meg Whitman by a margin of 54% to 28% with 18% still undecided. At an estimated 19% of the overall California electorate, this 26-point margin among Latinos provides Brown with all 5 points of his 49% to 44% lead statewide, as reported by the Los Angeles Times. In fact, among non-Latinos the race is tied 48% to 48% with 4% undecided.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Latino likely voters favor Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer by an even larger margin, 66% for Boxer to 26% for Republican Carly Fiorina, and 8% undecided. Once again, this 40-point margin among Latinos provides Boxer with all 8 points of her 51% to 43% lead statewide. Among non-Latinos in the U.S. Senate race, 47% favor Boxer, 47% Fiorina, and 6% undecided.
Despite lead, Brown still under performs: Though Brown has a 24-point margin among Latinos, his estimated 54% of the vote among likely Latino voters is far lower than Boxer’s 66%. When asked what their party identification was, 69% said Democrat and 21% Republican. Thus, Brown trails Latino Democratic affiliation by 15 points.
About the poll
As part of the USC / Los Angeles Times poll of California registered voters, Latino Decisions conducted an oversample of Latino registered voters in California. A total of 400 Latino registered voters were interviewed by Latino Decisions, by telephone from September 16 – 22, 2010. Name and phone number samples were provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI) which included about 12% cell-phone only Latino households. Respondents were first screened by Spanish surname based on the name listed on the publically available list of registered voters in California. Respondents then confirmed if they were Latino and currently registered to vote in California, and only self-identified Latino registered voters continued with the survey. The survey was available in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, and all interviewers were fully bilingual. Overall, 40% of the Latino oversample interviews were conducted in Spanish, and 60% in English. The 400 completed interviews carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted the non-Latino portion of the USC / Los Angeles Times poll, and Latino Decisions conducted only the Latino oversample. The Latino oversample methodology was overseen by Political Scientists, Dr. Matt A. Barreto and Dr. Gary M. Segura of Latino Decisions.
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I don’t want the democrats in control anymore. They had two years with Obama in the Whitehouse and control of both houses and did nothing but push for healthcare. They could have passed immigration reform and they chose not to do anything. Now when they know an immigration bill won’t pass they push it and blame the other party for not getting behind it. When Bush was president he tried to pass a reform bill but congress refused to pass it, he had a democratically controlled congress at the time. It seems to me the democrats are all talk and no action, they are no different than the republicans. Things are worse now than ever before and the democrats have had control for three years and two of those they had complete control. The democratic party has not helped and I don’t think they plan to. Obama is just like all other politicians, all lies
I have followed Whitman’s debate on tv and the hypocracy she showed with her maid. Withman represents what is happening in the usa, you want cheap labor but they should have their papers. well if they get the papers, forget about cheap labor. So you keep a pool of undocumented persons so the system chan exploited them, specially ruling class types like Meg. I am with the fellow who said browns for Brown. and down with meg. May be this time around the democrats will realize that the Latino vote will make the difference and save the house and senate.
I would say Latinos are my brothers and sister and so are all u repubs God gave us a gift we are all human and family Latinos get this but republicans dont.. You should sit down with a latino family repugs and u would see the love they have for family and country.,, they need to be safe from cangs and cartels in Mexico sending them back would be like playing games with there lifes at stake,,,,,Free America Let Latinos get cit. ship and put into soc. sec. lets make america strong with all races and all folks whom care about Life Liberty And Justice for all….
Hello. Citizen Shame here… ashamed of the California Democratic Party and that phoney Alred broad who would ignore the important economic issues and public projects of California’s future and throw an emotional racist issue into the pot to distract people who do not take the time to think and research. Years after the fact, this illegal person is moaning and crying over her mistreatment at the hands of Meg Simon Legree Whitman. She might as well be saying, “Oh, please, please don’t beat me again Massah! I need yo’ help Massah..Don’t put me and my little chilluns out in the street, Massah…”
Any one who falls for this theatrical emotion twister should rethink their decision to participate in the election system.
Hey, how about this, let’s get the Latino vote out for Brown:
Putting the brown back in Brown!
The brown vote for Brown
to ebay sucks, you are right, she will not get enough Latinos voting for her, as we know that she stands to replicate the arizona law in califas. she wants to keep the setatus quo of the ruling class in califas. vote her down and vote for brown. guillermo in san antonio
What’s interesting is that Queen Meg has been spending all these millions of dollars, including on Spanish TV out here in Califas, and she is still only at 28% of the Latino vote. Granted, Brown is only at 54%, he should be way higher, but I think Whitman has hit her ceiling, she will NOT get more than 30% of the Latino vote, her outreach is superficial and shallow.
Thanks for your survey, its results give Latinos in other states hope that the Senate will remain democratic and that the house might not suffer too many defeats. The California survey should be replicated in other states to see the influence that Latinos will have in the upcoming elections. Thus if politicians want our vote in 2012, washington will have to address inmigration reform in the next two years.